Yesterday , I did a simple tough calculation about Basic Motors to try to get at how a lot manufacturing job loss one could attribute to overseas competition versus automation and productiveness will increase. Numerous commenters objected that my assumptions were too simplistic, notably in neglecting the home content in international autos and the importance of shifts within the provide chain over time.
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Complicating your exercise even more is the fact that individuals are likely to maintain their automobiles longer nowadays than they used to. This is in large part as a result of high quality has gone up, lowering the frequency needed to purchase a new car. I think this has far more to do with the declining share of GDP devoted to auto purchases than any of the opposite components you mentioned.